At Kenwood we pride ourselves on the truth, not industry hype. Here's some sobering numbers on what purchasing the highest priced horses at sales produces.....
How tough is it to buy a good horse at a sale? Here's some interesting stats but let's begin with a personal example...Last April, Kenwood pinhooked a very nice colt by Run Happy, who is now named Happy Is A Choice (great name!). We purchased him privately post sale for $45,000, which seemed like an exceptional bargain especially given how strong the sale-market was. We sent him to Nick deMeric in Ocala to be broken and he proved to be a strong, sound, precocious colt. Seeing an opportunity to make a significant profit in a short time, we let Nick enter him in the OBS April 2 year old sale this spring to see what the market would bear. We knew going in he had talent and potential so we weren’t going to give him away, but at the right price hard to turn down a profit, particularly in this challenging business. We reserved him for $140,000 and he sold for $160,000, obviously a sizable profit in about 6 months even including about 30k in training-breaking-sale expenses. While the owners were obviously very pleased with the result and the nice profit, people naturally wondered ‘what if we sold a really good horse’?
Since that time, Happy Is A Choice has indeed proven to be a very good horse. He’s made 4 starts already as a two year old, breaking his maiden at Keenland in a maiden special weight race with a huge $100,000 purse and then running 6th in a stake at Oaklawn Park last week (you can see the charts from all his races here; https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10758662®istry=T ). His earnings to date stand at $69,200, with obviously the potential to have a fine career and earn a lot more than that. If you don’t find that impressive, look at the stats below; of the 19 highest priced yearlings of this year’s crop, only one has won and that one has earned less than him. It’s hard to win races, Happy Is A Choice has already beaten the odds. But what will it take to ‘earn out’ the $160,000 they paid us for him in April? With training costs of about $60000 a year (probably more on the circuit he’s running on) his earnings to date have barely covered his expenses this year (remember the jockey and trainer each get about 10% of the purse, plus some race day expenses so the $69,200 in earnings nets about $55,000 to the owners). If he goes on to be a really nice horse and say wins a $150,000 stake and a couple nice allowance races next year as a three year old they might net $100,000 +/- profit, nice but still not enough to cover the money they paid for him. Of course there’s the thrill of owning a nice colt, that’s why we all do this, but those numbers assume he becomes a real stake horse, which only about 3% of all horses do If he ends up to be a nice allowance horse or a high end claiming horse, they will get back little if anything on their $160,000 investment. Unless he’s one of a couple hundred really top graded stakes winners from about 20,000 horses in this year’s crop, financially he’ll be a loser. That’s exactly why, much as we would have enjoyed racing him, we took the profit at the sale.
This is just one personal example of so many industry wide. There were 19 horses sold as yearlings for at least 1 million dollars in 2021 (see below). 18 of them have yet to win a single race to date, the best one has won 1 race and earned $58,125!!!!!!! Sure, there’s time for some of them to mature into good horses, but it’s going to take a miracle for even a couple of them to close anywhere close to returning their purchase price. These are elite individuals with world class pedigrees and conformation, selected at sales by some of the leading people in the industry. The numbers just don’t work paying top dollar at sales. It’s a really, REALLY tough game folks. A lot better shot financially to claim a horse for $20,000 - $50,000 who has already made it to the races, than pay a lot more than that a sale for a unraced baby with all the potential in the world. If you want the best shot at making money, do what we did with Happy Is A Choice, buy a yearling and sell it to someone else as a two year old. NO guarantees there either but a lot better risk-reward ratio than racing it.
Most of the people who sell horses don’t tell you this, they are selling dreams and would prefer you don’t know the facts. We operate differently, we firmly believe an educated owner is the right person to participate in this wonderful game. Yes, you can make money doing it right, with a lot of luck and patience, but you should go into it with realistic expectations, knowing the odds are against you, especially with young unraced horses.
The highest-priced yearlings of '21 with racing results to date (as of 12/15/22);
Fasig_tipton Yearling Sale
Hip 168 - Colt
Price: $2.6 million, UNRACED
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam (damsire): Paola Queen (Flatter)
Buyer: M.V. Magnier
Hip 73 - Colt
Price: $1.6 million, UNRACED
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam (damsire): Dame Dorothy (Bernardini)
Buyer: Lawana Low
Hip 132 - Colt
Price: $1.4 million, 1 start, unplaced, $1,255
Sire: Bolt d’Oro
Dam (damsire): Lotta Kim (Roar)
Buyer: OXO Equine
Hip 160 - Filly
Price: $1 million, 1 start, unplaced, $1,250
Sire: Quality Road
Dam (damsire): Above Perfection (In Excess)
Buyer: Kindred Stables
Hip 61 Filly
Price: $1 million, UNRACED
Sire: Tapit
Dam (damsire): Checkupfromzneckup (Dixie Union)
Buyer: West Point Thorougbreds, Scarlet Oak Racing & NBS Stable
Keeneland September yearling sale
Hip 612 - Colt
Price: $1.7 million - UNRACED
Sire: City of Light
Dam (damsire): Anchorage (Tapit)
Buyer: Woodford Racing, Talla Racing, West Point Thoroughbreds.
Hip 300 - Colt
Price: $1.6 million – 1 start unplaced, $4,563
Sire: Quality Road
Dam (damsire): Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon)
Buyer: Woodford Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds
Hip 580 - Colt
Price: $1.55 million - UNRACED
Sire: Justify
Dam (damsire): True Feelings (Latent Heat)
Buyer: Talla Racing and West Point Thoroughbreds
Hip 43 - Doing Justice (filly)
Price: $1.4 million - UNRACED
Sire: American Pharoah
Dam (damsire): Letgomyecho (Menifee)
Buyer: Northshore Bloodstock
Hip 177 - Colt
Price: $1.35 million – 1 Start, 1 win, $58,125
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam (damsire): Superiority Complex (Ire) (Hard Spun)
Buyer: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Hip 331 - Colt
Price: $1.3 million – 1 start, placed, $10,200
Sire: Tapit
Dam (damsire): Danzatrice (Dunkirk)
Buyer: Whisper Hill Farm
Hip 333 - Colt
Price: $1.3 million - UNRACED
Sire: Curlin
Dam (damsire): Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro)
Buyer: M.V. Magnier
Hip 356 - Filly
Price: $1.25 million - UNRACED
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam (damsire): Embellish the Lace (Super Saver)
Buyer: Spendthrift Farm
Hip 223 - African Waters (filly)
Price: $1.2 million - UNRACED
Sire: War Front
Dam (damsire): Vaulcluse (A.P. Indy)
Buyer: Seahorse Stables
Hip 286 - Colt
Price: $1.15 million - UNRACED
Sire: Quality Road
Dam (damsire): Brielle’s Appeal (English Channel)
Buyer: Mayberry Farm
Hip 89 - Evergrande (filly)
Price: $1.1 million - UNRACED
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam (damsire): Nikki’s Choice (Forestry)
Buyer: Courtlandt Farm
Hip 376 - Colt
Price: $1.05 million - UNRACED
Sire: City of Light
Dam (damsire): Ghostslayer (Ghostzapper)
Buyer: West Bloodstock for Repole Stable & St. Elias
Hip 309 - Sir Blue Eyes (colt)
Price: $1 million - UNRACED
Sire: War Front
Dam (damsire): Chatham (Maria’s Mon)
Buyer: Lynnhaven Racing
Hip 874 - Colt
Price: $1 million – 2 starts, unplaced, $5,625
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam (damsire): Secret Someone (A.P. Indy)
Buyer: Mike Ryan, agent
Hip 1022 - Colt
Price: $1 million - UNRACED
Sire: Street Sense
Dam (damsire): Critikal Reason (Aptitude)
Buyer: BSW/Crow Colts Group
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