Works, videos, photos....

  • A good morning of training with works at Monmouth for Life On the Edge and Shake It Up Baby, who worked in company out of the gate this morning. As you can see on the link below and as Kelly Breen explained, they got more company than expected as two older horses were working as they came out of the gate and gave them some unexpected schooling (“It wasn’t what we had planned but it was a good education for them, turned out well”, Kelly).

 

 

  • Adam Parker sent us one final photo of Start A Fire the day before he shipped out to Monmouth, it’s attached here, enjoy!

Photo courtesy of Adam Parker, T-Square Stud

 

  • Annie’s Candy runs Friday at Golden Gate Fields. It’s a 5 furlong turf race. It’s the right level, and he has run 2nd in a stake in a very fast time on this turf course at the same distance, so not at all out of the question he runs well here. Race flow seems to suit him too, a lot of speed in the race to set up his late run.

 

Tomorrow is a very big day of racing for our California division, we get a number of requests for handicapping info. – suggestions when one of our horses hits the entries, i.e. “is our horse live, is it worth a bet” etc. Usually we don’t offer much in the way of wagering advice because we see our goal as winning races with your horses, not in cashing tickets (fun as that certainly is) and prefer to leave the handicapping to you. But now and then a little commentary in terms of betting doesn’t hurt and with three very ‘live’ horses running on one day in three very interesting races, this is a good time for a little handicapping…

As an overview begin by noting that for any serious handicapper, it’s all about ‘value’. Frequently you are wagering not on the horse with the best chance to hit the winner’s circle but rather on a horse with less of a shot that offers better odds. For example, if you have an obvious favorite in a race that has a 50% chance of winning but goes off at 3 to 5, in the long run you’ll win half your bets with these and go broke. On the other hand, the second if the second favorite has a 25% chance of winning but is going off at 4 to 1, you’ll only win a quarter of those bets but make a lot of money over time. Keeping that essential rule firmly in mind, here’s how I see our three runners for Sunday (in order of appearance).   

  • First up we have the career debut of Preacher in the 2nd race at Santa Anita, our first two year old of 2019 to reach the entry box. He’s been training very forwardly for his debut and is listed as the somewhat surprising 2nd choice at 3 to 1 morning line despite a super-tough spot (a maiden special weight with a huge $65,000 purse attracts premier young horses who cost many times his modest $40,000 purchase price). It’s a tribute to how well he’s been working, plus a top rider in Draden Van Dyke and a top trainer in Jerry Hollendorfer. He gets the far outside post in a 7 horse field, much better than drawing the rail but a bit problematic at 4&1/2 furlongs with a quick run to the first turn. A couple of horses have a start under their belts, a huge advantage for them as most of the time career debuts learning experiences.  Could he win? Absolutely. He’s training too well not to have a shot, but most likely he ends up 2nd or 3rd or 4th, shows some ability and moves forward from this race. As an example More Ice was a distant but closing 3rd of five horses in his career debut about this time last year and went on to bigger and better things. This horse looks like more of a precocious speed type but that said, I’d personally want at least 4 to 1, maybe a bit higher, to seriously bet on him. Probably a decent across the board wager if odds aren’t too low.  
  • Next we have More Ice in the $150,000 Cinema Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. He’s been pointing for this race and comes into it training absolutely super since his close 3rd in the California Derby in April (which was his 3rd career stakes placing). The right surface, the right distance and while we rarely talk much about jockeys, he’ll be ridden by one of the great ‘money riders’ in history in hall of fame jockey Mike Smith. He’s listed at 9 to 2 odds, somewhat surprising as especially with Mike Smith aboard I’d have expected a morning line closer to 3 to 1 or 7 to 2. That’s due to the quality of the competition he faces; all stakes are super tough and this is certainly no exception. That said, IF he fires his best shot AND gets a good trip he should be in the money again and has a legitimate chance to collect his first career stakes win. I’d gladly bet on him at the morning line of 9 to 2, even a bit lower, probably win and place or in exotics with a couple of the other top prospects.
  • Finally we have Starring John Wain running Sunday at Golden Gate Fields. He’s coming back a bit quick off his last race but we’ve been running against open company looking for a Ca. bred race and this looks like a decent spot for him if he can handle the quick turnaround and an overflow 11 horse field to boot. He’s been in the money in all of his last 8 starts and should be right there again. He’s listed as the 7 to 2 second choice on the morning line. Personally, in an 11 horse field with a horse coming back a bit quick who’s always close but has yet to win, I’d want 5 to 1 or better to make a win bet on him. An across the board bet makes sense at decent odds giving the fact he’s been in the money 8 straight times, while anything can happen you’d have to like his chances of hitting the board again here with any kind of a decent trip.  

 

Now to some other horse news briefly….

  • Start A Fire setting in nicely at Monmouth Park as he begins his training. Giuliana Vee will work tomorrow (Sunday).
  • ShimmyShimmy Shake and Federal Dominance both training very well with no issues since claiming them, Kelly is happy with both horses.  
  • Nice work today for Seahawk Lisa at Los Alamitos in Ca. as she approaches her debut (below)
  • Blue Eyed Beth good out of her recent work (below), as is Vibrant Spirit.
  • Bullion is ready to run too, looking at a race June 21st for him unless something comes up sooner.  
  • Night of Idiots has returned to training at Golden Gate Fields from the farm, Rapid Red will follow her shortly. 
  • Magic Musketier in training again at Santa Anita after a brief freshening.  

 

Horse Workout Notification 
June 1, 2019
Life On the Edge (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 1, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 37:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 25/33

Shake It Up Baby (2-Year-Old Colt)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse, purchased OBS March 2019
Date: June 1, 2019
Track: MONMOUTH PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 37:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 25/33

Horse Workout Notification 
May 31, 2019
Seahawk Lisa (2-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: KRP Racehorse
Date: May 31, 2019
Track: LOS ALAMITOS
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 38:20 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/4

 

Horse Workout Notification 
May 30, 2019
Blue Eyed Beth (3-Year-Old Filly)
Your comments for this horse were: OBS June sale purchase
Date: May 30, 2019
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 18/24