As the Belmont Stakes approaches, all eyes are on American Pharoah as he attempts to become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Affirmed in 1978. This is the 14^th time since Affirmed won that a horse came into the Belmont having won the Derby and Preakness, the previous 13 have lost the Belmont. Bob Baffert, Pharoah’s trainer, had three of those horses, Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002. Pharoah’s jockey, Victor Espinoza, rode War Emblem for Baffert and was aboard California Chrome when he finished 4^th last year.

So, can Pharoah break the drought and join the legends? Many people feel this horse is “the one”; he has trained and raced with undeniable brilliance throughout his brief career, is clearly a special horse, and appears to have come out of the Derby and Preakness none the worse for wear. A Belmont win is by no means out of the question for American Pharoah. Last year, the public and uninformed media types anointed California Chrome a triple crown winner long before the race was run, while more savvy racing people knew for a number of reasons the odds were strongly stacked against him. Note that this writer, three days before the Belmont last year wrote and published “California Chrome will almost certainly lose, and will be lucky to hit the board”. Take nothing away from ‘Chrome’, a very nice horse, but he just didn’t fit the profile of a Belmont Stakes winner for a number of reasons detailed in that article. Pharoah is different, but a Belmont win is hardly a sure thing.

So what exactly makes the Belmont Stakes so difficult to win and what is the profile of a Belmont Stakes winner? Of course the foremost factor in terms of difficulty is the distance of the race, 1&1/2 miles; sadly few if any American Thoroughbreds are bred for it anymore and virtually no races outside of the Belmont Stakes are even run anymore at 1&1/2 miles in North America. Then there is the much ballyhooed fact that most of the top horses who compete in the Kentucky Derby (aside from the winner) pass the Preakness and come into the Belmont a fresh(er) horse. Clearly, that’s a significant advantage compared to a horse attempting to sweep the Triple Crown, running for the 3^rd time in just 5 weeks. Finally, Belmont Park is a unique track; 1&1/2 miles in circumference compared to the typical 1 mile oval, with a deep, tiring sandy surface that has given the track the nickname “the big sandy”. A few horses take to it like ducks to water, many others hate it. Bottom line, the Belmont is a vastly different setup than the Derby or Preakness in all respects. It’s a truly unusual horse that can handle three different races at three different distances on three very different surfaces in five weeks time, especially running against fresher competitors.  That’s what makes the series so challenging, so unique, and so hard to win.

Typically, the Belmont winner is a very different animal than the horse who wins the Derby and/or Preakness. Last year’s winner, Tonalist (who we correctly selected at juicy 11 to 1 odds to beat the heavily favored California Chrome) fit the profile perfectly; a lightly raced horse, bred to run all day, who had raced and won at Belmont previously (in his case in the Peter Pan stakes at Belmont Park just 4 weeks earlier, a race many horses have used in the past as a winning prep for the Belmont Stakes). Having run well at Belmont Park previously as a key factor for winning the Belmont Stakes cannot be (but usually is) underestimated. To cite one of many such examples, Birdstone, who ended the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes at huge odds, had won the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park as a two year old. (My friend Tom Christien correctly selected Birdstone to beat Smarty Jones despite the fact he was coming off two straight off-the-board performances, including an 8^th place finish behind Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby. We both cashed some very nice tickets in the Belmont that day!) There are many other examples of a Belmont winner having won, or at least run well in a race at Belmont Park previously.

So that brings us to this year’s race. American Pharoah has yet to race at Belmont Park. In fact, trainer Bob Baffert elected to keep him at Churchill Downs to train up to the Belmont, so he’ll have had little time and no timed workouts over the track prior to the race. This is not intended as a criticism of Baffert’s decision, the man knows his horse, just a statement of fact. As far as pedigree, Pharoah presents an interesting combination of speed and stamina in his family. On his sire’s side, Pharoah is bred to win the Belmont through and through. Pioneerof the Nile was second in the Kentucky Derby (2009) while his sire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes in probably the best race of his distinguished career. American Pharoah carries the bloodlines of champions and classic winners like Unbridled, Fappiano and the great Mr. Prospector, whose descendants have won no less than 42 Triple Crown races^.  However, American Pharoah's dam, Littleprincessemma, raced just twice and never won a race in her career. American Pharoah was her second foal, her first was a modest allowance winner at short distances. Her sire, Yankee Gentleman was hardly known for throwing classic winners. Further back, Yankee Gentleman’s sire was the great Storm Cat, but people frequently don’t understand that if you go far enough back in almost any horse’s pedigree you’ll find classic sires; almost every horse these days is a grandson or great grandson of classic sires like Seattle Slew, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat and Northern Dancer. Bottom line, Pharoah’s immediate female family can hardly be said to posses a classic distance pedigree.

In terms of coming into the race fresh, while American Pharoah clearly is at a disadvantage compared to several rivals who ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness, he has hardly been heavily raced in what has been frankly an all too limited career and according to all reliable accounts he’s training up to the Belmont exceptionally well. He shows no signs of being tired, is holding his weight, and continues to look the part of a happy, healthy horse every time he appears on the track. He’s clearly possessed of immense talent and has the tactical speed to sit on or close to the lead in the Belmont, according to how the pace scenario unfolds. Most people think that at 1&1/2 miles the Belmont favors off-the-pace runners, but history shows the vast majority of Belmont winners are on or at least fairly close to the pace throughout the race, with a surprising number of horses having won in wire to wire fashion, including most recently Seattle Slew and Affirmed, the last two triple crown winners. Training into the race well, with the running style to suit, and clearly possessing more raw talent than his rivals is the reason he stands a legitimate shot here.

As far as the competition, there are several horses who fit the profile of a Belmont Stakes up setter very nicely.  Frosted has the pedigree, and a good 2^nd in a maiden special weight race at Belmont Park last year. He comes into the race fresh, ran well in the Kentucky Derby (a closing 4^th although no match for American Pharoah). Materiality ran very well in the Derby after a terrible start and he too comes into the race fresh, but his pedigree is a bit of a question mark here at the 1&1/2 mile distance. Made From Lucky won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont in his last, as mentioned above a key prep for the Belmont. Both of these two are trained by Todd Pletcher, who has an absolutely dismal record in the Derby but has won 2 Belmonts. Still not a great record in Triple Crown races considering the kind of stock he is given year after year for some unexplainable reason. Mubtaahij was plain overmatched in the Derby but is in very capable hands and has reportedly been training well. Keen Ice by Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare is bred as well as any for the distance but has never beat horses like these. He too is supposedly training up to the race exceptionally well. Conquest Curlinate was a very interesting longshot, also by Curlin, lightly raced, with a good 2^nd in the Peter Pan to Made From Lucky over the track to his credit, but his connections elected to pass the race in favor of the Queen's Plate at Woodbine. A shame, as he would have been my upset pick. Tale of Verve ran a huge race to be a distant 2nd to American Pharoah in the Preakness and is lightly raced but this seems like a lot to ask. Frammento is trained by Nick Zito, who upset Smarty Jones with Birdstone (see above) but he’d have to be Houdini to pull it off with this one.

My prediction? While known for making bold predictions, like Tonalist last year, this one is tough; really, really, really tough! It was easy as shooting fish in a barrel to bet against California Chrome last year. You could come up with very valid reasons why most of the previous 13 horses bidding for Triple Crown glory in the Belmont over the last 40 years were likely to lose. War Emblem, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Funny Cide, Big Brown and the grossly overrated Spectacular Bid were simply not that good. Others like Silver Charm, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba and Sunday Silence were top class horses who simply ran into a really good rival who was at their best on that track on that day. Here we have the best horse in the race by far in terms of talent, with the right connections, coming into the race training really well, with nobody else in the race that really stands out in all categories. With our stable, Kenwood Racing, having bought a pair of two year old fillies by American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof the Nile for bargain prices this spring, plus a crowd of Kenwood people including yours truly with prime seats at Belmont Park, we’ll be rooting for Pharoah to win the Triple Crown as hard as anyone. Win or lose, I expect Pharoah to run very well, no repeat of California Chrome’s dull 4^th place - never in the hunt finish last year. Pharoah could be so good he’ll simply run away from the field and win by open lengths, if he is going to become the first Triple Crown winner in almost 40 years that would be the best way to do it. Sadly, he’s not going to run as a 4 year old, and most likely if he wins the Triple Crown they won’t risk finding out just how good he really is by facing older horses this fall. He’ll be retired to stud as a brilliant unknown, a perfect example of how racing shoots itself in the foot by allowing its greatest stars to be sent off to stud way too soon. If the Jockey Club, who has done much to revitalize racing in recent years, wanted to really help the game they would not allow any sire to have his foals registered until age 5, which would keep horse like Pharoah in training at least through their four year old season. But first he has to win the Belmont Stakes, and something tells me he might get beat here, mostly likely by likely second choice Frosted, Materiality, or longshot Keen Ice in that order of likelihood. A lot depends on the pace of the race, if Pharoah can sit on or close to the lead without going too fast early he'll be tough to beat, and looking at the field that may well be how the race unfolds. Materiality will probably have a lot to say about the early pace scenario. Whatever happens, it will be a race for the ages and we have to hope that win or lose, Pharoah's owners will prove to be true sportsmen and at least run him until the end of the season and give him an opportunity to prove himself against older horses this fall.

H. Robb Levinsky is the founder of Kenwood Racing