As usual, this year’s Derby promises to be a fascinating handicapping exercise. While it’s the best-known race in the country if not the world, it’s by no means the race with the best horses. It’s a race for young horses just developing, where the pace and trip in a huge field mean more in many cases than who has the most talent (a few years ago Always Dreaming, a vastly inferior horse who never won a single race since, got a dream drip and won, the perfect example of that). This year’s edition offers many logical contenders and an opportunity to make money betting against a vulnerable favorite.
First, some selections for a few other key races from Churchill on Oaks day (Friday) and the Derby day card. Please note, all selections below assume a fast track (prediction is for perfect sunny weather) and no major scratches. Any updates will be posted online on race day.
Friday April 30th – Kentucky Oaks Day
8th – Grade I La Troienne
Envoutante and Finite are both undefeated at Churchill and both are top class fillies. With Shedaresthedevil and Dunbar Road both going to attract a ton of money you should get super prices. Bet both Envoutante and Finite to win (modestly, the favorites are solid in here) and you’ll make money if either are able to pull off the upset.
9th – Grade II Eight Belles
A wide-open race offers value and I will go with two longshots here, both worth a modest win-place wager at an expected price. Caramel Swirl comes off a smashing maiden win at Keeneland, Bill Mott is a conservative trainer so the fact he jumps right into a stake says something. Slumber Party trained by our own Kelly Breen is a lightly raced filly with a ton of talent training well for this one.
11th – Grade I Kentucky Oaks
This race has three horses likely to attract the bulk of the wagering and I like both Travel Column and Search Results, the morning line 2nd and 3rd choices. Each has excellent speed figures for top connections. I’ll take a stand against the morning line favorite, the unbeaten Malathat, who is certainly a contender but has faced short fields in all her starts and just barely won her last two. Admit to being a bit biased in favor of Crazy Beautiful as she’s by super young sire Liam’s Map and Kenwood has a spectacular Liam’s Map yearling, but she too has a top rider and trainer and ran an absolutely huge race last time in the GP Oaks, winning going away from last and has worked super since. At anywhere near her 15 to 1 morning line will bet to win and place and couple with the top two in exactas.
Saturday May 1st – Kentucky Derby Day
Pre-Derby races;
9th – American Turf Grade II
Wide open race so I’ll go with a possible price play. Excellent Timing has a terrific trainer, Chad Brown, who is a master with young grass horses. Never tried turf so may offer a bit of value. Very impressive in state bred dirt stake in NY last out.
10th Churchill Downs Stakes Grade I
Everyone loves the legendary 8 year old Whitmore, he’s the likely favorite and tough to fault in any respect but perhaps will be over bet so I’ll go with Phat Man, who is undefeated in two starts at Churchill, has run some super-fast races, and comes off a very impressive win. The now horse at a price.
11th Turf Classic Grade 1
Sorry to be boring here but I like Colonel Liam as the obvious favorite. Can make a case for Domestic Spending to upset off the layoff for Chad Brown if the top one falters.
12th The Kentucky Derby Grade 1
This is as usual an interesting and competitive race. My key here is a play against the solid 2 to 1 morning line favorite, the undefeated two-year-old champion Essential Quality. Perfectly brought up to the race by Brad Cox and by top sire Tapit, I feel he’s not taken the step forward at three some horses do and is likely to be beaten by a developing horse. He was all out to win his last and has trained up to the race fine but others have looked more impressive in morning works. Really hard to knock but I think he’s likely to settle for a placing here and is just as likely to be totally off the board as he is to win. I also think another horse likely to attract considerable wagering support, Medina Spirit, is worth taking a stand against. He couldn’t keep up with my top choice last time and will be over bet as a Baffert trainee compared to what he’s shown so far. Both of these are perfectly logical contenders but in this race you need to be willing to bet against some good horses. Playing against them opens up some attractive wagering opportunities;
My top selection is likely 2nd choice Rock Your World, who has done nothing wrong in his three winning starts and seems to be the kind of lightly raced improving runner with tactical speed that usually wins this race. Only one start on the dirt but was incredibly impressive in winning the Santa Anita Derby and is by top dirt sire Candy Ride. While John Sadler isn’t as well known outside of California, he’s a first-class trainer who has pushed all the right buttons with this horse. A good trip and a repeat of his last makes him the horse to beat.
I liked Known Agenda off two super impressive Gulfstream races as much or more than Rock Your World until he drew the highly unfavorable #1 post. A very tough spot to win from but that may increase his odds and he looks to be peaking at just the right time. In fairness, with new single gate this year it may not be nearly as much of a disadvantage as in the past and with the late scratch of King Fury (see below) while he'll still be listed as #1 he'll be breaking from gate #2, so the post draw becomes less of an issue. Has exactly the pedigree (by Curlin) to get the distance. IF he gets the trip from this post he's equal to Rock Your World in my rankings and possibly a better bet in terms of the likely odds.
Possible Contenders (in rough order);
If none of the likely favored horses fire their best shots and/or get bad trips (remember this is a race with 20 runners on a track some horses love and some hate so the trip is everything many years) there are several others who could take the roses, some at attractive prices, as follows;
Highly Motivated almost beat Essential Quality in the Blue Grass last time and could easily turn the tables here. Been training well for this and trainer Chad Brown is expecting a big effort from him.
(SCRATCHED) King Fury is an interesting longshot. While he was repeatedly beaten by favorite Essential Quality as a 2 year old and comes into this off of just one three year old prep race, it was an impressive going away win. He’s by Curlin so bred to love the added distance, has an excellent trainer in Ken McPeek, and has two wins at Churchill to his credit, a huge advantage. May just not be as good as the top runners in here but at likely odds of 20 to 1 or better, hard to pass up a modest win-place wager on him.
Mandaloun & Midnight Bourbon are both ultra-consistent types with the pedigree for this race and each has run well at Churchill in the past. Neither would be a big surprise and both are worth including in exotic wagers.
Hot Rod Charlie may well be over bet and I’m not sold on his sire Oxbow but his trainer knows how to win this race and you can’t totally toss him. He looks like the kind that could be in-the-money but less likely to win it all. He’ll probably be lower odds than the two above (Mandaloun & Midnight Bourbon) so I’ll use him in exotics but not as a win bet.
Interesting longshots;
Bourbonic is bred for this (by Bernardini) and looked impressive gobbling up ground to just get up in the Wood Memorial last time. Deep closers rarely win the Derby, especially from the far outside, but if the race sets up for it and he gets the trip, not impossible.
Soup and Sandwich has the pedigree for it (Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare) and ran a very game 2nd to Known Agenda in the Florida Derby in just his 3rd career start. It’s a lot to ask to win here but the potential is there and will be a huge price. Worth a small saver bet and/or tossing in your exotic wagers.
IF the final odds are anywhere close to the morning line, my primary wagers will be a win-place bet on Rock Your World, and with the scratch of King Fury and a better post, an equal wager on Known Agenda. I'll do a 3 horse exotic box with those two and Highly Motivated and then mix in some exotic wagers with some of the other listed possible contenders depending on the final odds.
The key to betting a race like this (and most races) is to look for the best value, which is not necessarily the best horse. The fact that I am not enamored of the horse likely to be solidly favored makes this an interesting wagering race for me because I expect fairly generous odds on the horses I like relative to their chances of winning. Much as I like Rock Your World for example, if he went off the favorite I’d look elsewhere for my primary wager because at 2 to 1 he wouldn’t be a great value. I don’t expect to make a win wager on Highly Motivated even though I rank him as the 3rd or 4th most likely horse to win the race because I expect him to be one of the wagering favorites and offer limited value. If he ended up going off at 10 to 1 I’d certainly bet him to win at that price. Understanding betting odds vs. the relative chance each horse has to win is the key to successful wagering.
Questions and comments welcome ! A safe, clean trip for all the horses and riders and best of luck to everyone
By H. Robb Levinsky