So I had 3 of the top 4 horses in the Derby, but unfortunately that and $2 won’t even get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks.  The horse I omitted was Firing Line, who mounted a serious challenge to American Pharoah and many expect him to do so again in the Preakness.

The big question in this race for me is how much the Derby took out of the first three horses, particularly American Pharoah.  The final quarter mile of the Derby was the slowest of the past 5 years.  All three horses, American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund were clearly tiring.  Also, American Pharoah was “reminded” by jockey Victor Espinoza between 29 and 33 times in the Derby depending on who was counting.

The other issue with the race is that the other entries don’t exactly inspire confidence.

Tale of Verve is in the race for no good reason, Mr. Z is regressing, and Bodhisavatta is there merely because he won the Tesio Stakes with nothing else to recommend him.  That leaves Divining Rod and Danzig Moon as two with at least some logic to being here. 

Divining Rod had enough points to get into the Derby but decided to skip it to come here.  He now obviously has more rest then the top 3.  He will certainly be a sentimental favorite as he is owned by the same people who owned Barbaro.  The Lexington Stakes winner also appears to be a horse on the improve.  Divining Rod also has a top pedigree, but then again, as a wise man once said, the pedigree page doesn’t break from the gate!

Finally there is Danzig Moon.  He has become sort of the “wise guys” horse in this race.  His come from behind style could surprise.  He has the same sire as Orb who you may remember fared poorly in the Preakness after winning the Derby.  He also has the reputation as somewhat of a “morning glory”- a horse that trains really well but doesn’t translate that to race day.

So my picks will be thus:  I still can’t go against American Pharoah, so I will pick him to win (He did what he had to do in the Derby.  He had the longest trip of the top 3 in the Derby, albeit a good one, and still beat them), Firing Line to get second (Firing Line is as game as they come) and Divining Rod to get third.  I have soured a bit on Dortmund (He set leisurely fractions in the Derby, had the perfect trip, and still couldn’t beat the top 2.), so I’ll put him fourth.

All that said, the odds on American Pharoah will give you absolutely no value and I don’t see anyone outside of Divining Rod spoiling the party for the top 3, so don’t bet the mortgage on this race.  I won’t.