So let me start off by saying that the Kentucky Derby will be the only thoroughbred race that many in the general public will bet on for the year.

That said, it is also one of the worst races to bet on (as is any race at Churchill Downs).  Churchill Downs has takeout (the amount of money that the track takes from the betting pool) among the worst of any racetrack in America.  The takeout on straight bets (such as win, place or show) is 17.5% and on multiple horse bets (such as exacta, trifecta, superfecta and Picks 3, 4, 5 and 6) is 22%.

That means for every $100 the public bets, only $82.50 is returned on straight bets and only $78 on multiple horse bets.  To give you an idea of how bad that is, the typical slot machine (yes, slot machines……..the worst bet in a casino!!) return in the range of $85 to $90 for every $100 bet.

So realizing that betting at Churchill Downs is a sucker bet, we all still can’t resist the pull of betting on the Derby.

As a confirmed horse racing fan, I will never bet Churchill except on Derby Day!  Yes, I get sucked in just like everyone else.

If Churchill Downs really cared about horse racing, they would lower the takeout on Derby Day to attract new fans.  What they care about is making their big killing on Derby Day and not with the industry as a whole.

Thoroughbred racing is a wonderful sport with many sincere and honest people (and, of course, the most beautiful animals in the world).  If Churchill would only use Derby Day to promote the sport in general, a lot of the perception of the industry would change. 

Churchill, though, is Churchill so, with much trepidation, here is how I bet the Derby:

Since I know the takeout is high, I bet the Derby mainly for the fun of it, still using my handicapping skills (for what they are) to try and win, but with the knowledge that the larger than normal takeout is against me.

At most tracks, wagers such as the Pick 4 or Pick 5 have lower takeout, but that is not the case at Churchill.  Thus a Superfecta is no worse a bet than a Pick 4 or an exacta. 

There is another way that Churchill messes with the public on Derby Day and that is with the superfecta.  On most days at Churchill, a superfecta box can be bet for .10 (or $2.40 for a 4 horse box) but for Derby Day, the superfecta is a $1.00 minimum, making the same bet $24.00.  So what could be an exciting bet for the casual bettor, now is out of their range.

As for me, the historical payouts on the superfecta are too good to pass up.  Since the takeout is going to be bad anyway, I figure I may as well take a shot on the super.

Since 2000, the lowest super payout has been $3,720 (in 2000) and the highest payout has been $864,253 (in 2005).  Median payout being $57,737.80.

While all horse races require some measure of racing luck, the Derby requires more than most, with the exceptionally large field resulting in a lot of bumping, traffic and other unpredictable problems. 

Hoping for some of that racing luck to come my way, here are my picks and bets for the Derby (subject to change if any of these horses get post position 1, the death knell for the Derby):

1^st: American Pharoah

2^nd: Upstart

3^rd: Carpe Diem

4^th: Frosted

5^th: Dortmund

$6 win: American Pharoah,

$2 exacta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Carpe Diem ($12 bet)

$2 trifecta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Carpe Diem ($12 bet)

$1 superfecta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Carpe Diem, Frosted, Dortmund ($120 bet)

Total bets: $150

So there it is, my take on Churchill and the Derby.  Comments are welcome and good luck to everyone with your own Derby picks!

Updated 4/29:

With the post positions now chosen, I have left my top 4, but will flip Carpe Diem and Dortmund.  So my picks now are:

1^st: American Pharoah

2^nd: Upstart

3^rd: Dortmund

4^th: Frosted

5^th: Carpe Diem

$6 win: American Pharoah,

$2 exacta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Dortmund ($12 bet)

$2 trifecta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Dortmund ($12 bet)

$1 superfecta box: American Pharoah, Upstart, Carpe Diem, Frosted, Dortmund ($120 bet)

Total bets: $150

I just hate the 2 post position for Carpe Diem but I am not worried about the other post positions for my other 3 picks.

Good luck to everyone!