We’ve had a number of previous blog posts looking at what you get when you pay top dollar for fast workout times at two year old sales. This week, our friends at Two-Year-Old Sales Preview Watch (who are doing a real service to our game by offering much needed facts instead of the usual mis-leading sales hype) profiled the results of bloodstock agent Jacob West and the well-known syndicate Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners at the two year old sales the last few years. The article is re-printed below; the numbers speak for themselves and they aren’t pretty. Now it happens we know Jacob West because he’s done some consulting work at the sales for Kenwood (short-listing and clocking). Jacob is a skilled horseman and a smart, honest, capable agent. The problem lies not in his ability to pick out good racing prospects but rather the price his clients are paying to purchase them. The article indicates that the average purchase price for all the horses shown below is about $300,000 with an overall R.O.I. (return on investment) of about 20%. In other words, about an 80% loss, NOT including training expenses. If the same horses were being purchased for an average of $100,000, the R.O.I. numbers would look considerably different.
The primary problem with our industry is that incredibly wealthy people with far more money than common sense are willing to repeatedly overpay for top racing prospects, not understanding or choosing to ignore the basic economic facts of the business. If the sales averages were reduced by 60% or the overall purse money available at North American racetracks were to double, the business would have some level of economic reality. Of the approximately 22,000 horses born each year, about 3% or roughly 600 will win a stake at some point in their lifetime. Only a fraction of those will win a graded stake, and perhaps 15-30 will win one of the grade 1 stakes people dream about. About 85% of the 22,000 will either end up as modest claiming horses or never win any race. What this all means is that on average, you have to buy 30-35 horses to come up with one horse capable of winning an ungraded stake with a purse of $75,000 - $100,000. Those numbers don’t lend themselves to paying $300,000 for any horse, plain and simple.
TWO-YEAR-OLD SALES PREVIEW WATCH
"Are fast preview times predictive of racetrack success?"
(352) 545-FAST
Volume 1, Issue 18
Bloodstock agent JACOB WEST joined ECLIPSE THOROUGHBRED PARTNERS in 2017 and since then has developed quite a reputation for purchasing for it (in conjunction with CEO ARON WELLMAN) high-priced two-year-olds which previewed in the FASTEST recorded times.
WEST has also purchased juveniles as agent under his WEST BLOODSTOCK banner using the same stopwatch criteria.
In this issue of PREVIEW WATCH we analyze the racetrack success of WEST's selections for both a) ECLIPSE TB partners, and b) WEST BLOODSTOCK clients.
ECLIPSE THOROUGHBRED PARTNERS, according to its website:
We decided to put ECLIPSE THOROUGHBRED PARTNERS' claim to our test:
Are its FASTEST PREVIEWING TWO-YEAR-OLD PURCHASES SUCCESSFUL AS RACEHORSES?
(Note: Stakes winners are noted in RED)
a) ECLIPSE THOROUGHBRED
PARTNERS 2YO PURCHASES:
2019
1) COTHRAN (Palace Malice)
$550,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$110,000 sales yearling
Unraced
SELLER: OLD SOUTH FARM, agent
2) GALE (Tonalist)
$450,000 sales 2yo (Fasig Tipton)
$200,000 sales yearling
One start, no wins, $9,009
SELLER: EDDIE WOODS, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: BRIDLEWOOD FARM and ROBERT LA PENTA
3) EPITOMIZE (Cairo Prince)
$350,000 sales 2yo (Fasig Tipton)
$200,000 sales yearling
Four starts, one win, $22,822
SELLER: CARY FROMMER, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: PAUL BRAVERMAN
4) GRAVITAS (Blame)
$290,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$19,000 sales yearling
Four starts, two wins, $39,540 (won $30,000 claiming race Aug. 23, 2020)
SELLER: ALL IN SALES
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
5) GESTURE (Tapiture)
$240,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$150,000 RNA sales yearling
Five starts, one win, $19,670 (then claimed for $16,000)
SELLER: WOODFORD TBS
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
6) SPEECH (Mr. Speaker)
$190,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$95,000 RNA sales yearling
Eight starts, three wins, $378,240 (G1 SW)
SELLER: SBM TRAINING AND SALES, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: MADAKET STABLES
7) CONVEX (Conveyance)
$155,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$32,000 RNA sales yearling
Four starts, one win, $12,271
SELLER: TOP LINE SALES, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
8) STUNTING (Daredevil)
$155,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$5,000 sales yearling
Four starts, no wins, $32,320
SELLER: DE MERIC SALES
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
9) KUDURO (Danza)
$57,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$14,000 sales yearling
Seven starts, no wins, $18,767
SELLER: ADVANCED TBS
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
TOTALS FOR 2019
TOTAL EARNINGS (rounded to $1,000s): $533,000
AVERAGE EARNINGS: $59,222
TOTAL 2YO SALES PURCHASES (9): $2,437,000
AVERAGE 2YO SALE PRICE: $270,555
AVERAGE ROI: 20%
TOTAL YEARLING SALES PRICES (9): $825,000
AVERAGE YEARLING SALE PRICE: $91,666
2018
1) BLAHNIK (Bernardini)
$575,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$50,000 sales yearling
14 starts, no wins, $36,397
SELLER: CRUPI'S NEWCASTLE FARM
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: REPOLE STABLE
2) COAST (Malibu Moon)
$500,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
Two starts, no wins, $1,388
SELLER: KING'S EQUINE
ECLIPSE PARTNER: REPOLE STABLE
3) COBBLE HILL (Verrazano)
$370,000 sales yearling (OBS)
$185,000 sales yearling
11 starts, two wins, $67,051
SELLER: WAVERTREE STABLES, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
4) STANDUP (Into Mischief)
$280,000 sales 2yo
$270,000 sales yearling
Three starts, one win, $28,300 (then claimed for $40,000)
SELLER: CARY FROMMER, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: REPOLE STABLE
5) POLICY (Strong Mandate)
$250,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
Five starts, one win, $53,920 (then claimed for $40,000)
SELLER: NIALL BRENNAN, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: E R J RACING
6) SIESTA (Tiznow)
$240,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
UNRACED
SELLER: WOODFORD THOROUGHBREDS, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
7) KNOCK (Tapit)
$235,000 sales 2yo (Fasig Tipton)
$300,000 sales yearling
One start, no wins, $500
SELLER: NIALL BRENNAN, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
8) STIRRED (Shakin It Up)
$150,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$52,000 sales yearling
10 starts, two wins, $86,876
SELLER: SBM STABLES, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
9) POLAR (Graydar)
$140,000 sales 2yo (Barretts)
$10,000 sales yearling
Five starts, two wins, $16,702 (then claimed for $6,250)
SELLER: TOP LINE SALES (GLADWELL)
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
10) SURFACE (Quality Road)
$130,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$50,000 sales yearling
10 starts, no wins, $20,712
SELLER: KIRKWOOD STABLES
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: TNIP LLC
11) PAKHET (Cairo Prince)
$130,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$100,000 sales yearling
10 starts, one win, $89,458
SELLER: HOPPEL'S HORSE AND CATTLE CO.
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
12) HYDRA (Kantharos)
$130,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$20,000 sales yearling
Two starts, no wins, $4,930 (then claimed for $25,000)
SELLER: DE MERIC SALES, agent
ECLIPSE PARTNERS: none
13) PIPES (Exchange Rate)
$115,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$50,000 sales yearling
Eight starts, one win, $83,839 (then claimed for $30,000)
SELLER: RICEHORSE STABLE
ECLIPSE PARTNER: DOGWOOD STABLE
14) NORWEGIAN (Street Boss)
$32,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$24,000 RNA sales yearling
12 starts, one win, $13,455 (then claimed for $12,500)
SELLER: WAVERTREE STABLES
ECLIPSE PARTNER: none
TOTALS FOR 2018
TOTAL EARNINGS (rounded to $1,000s) $533,000
AVERAGE EARNINGS: $59,222
TOTAL 2YO SALES PURCHASES (14): $2,437,000
AVERAGE 2YO SALE PRICE: $270,555
AVERAGE ROI: 21.9%
TOTAL YEARLING PRICES: $825,000
AVERAGE YEARLING SALE PRICE: $91,666
b) WEST BLOODSTOCK 2YO PURCHASES:
2019
1) COLONEL LIAM (Liam's Map)
Buyer JACOB WEST, agent for ROBERT and LAWANA LOW:
"I don't use the term loosely, but he was a freak. I loved him from the second I saw him. There was a little bit of buzz before the sale. When you hear the buzz and then they show up on the track and do everything the right way, they vet clean, and they're from a good consignor, you get excited about them. When I went and saw him, I was totally in love. He was a physical specimen unlike anything I had seen in a while. I loved him. He has the right pedigree, and I am lucky to have clients that trust me."
"He is a big two-turn-looking horse who can hopefully get a route of ground," West said. He is stunning. I loved him so much. I hope the Lows come up with a good name for him because he is the man. We hope this horse goes on and we get lucky."
$1,200,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$50,000 sales yearling
Four starts, two wins, $97,790
BUYER: ROBERT AND LAWANA LOW
SELLER: WAVERTREE STABLES
2) UNNAMED (Tonalist)
$300,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$90,000 RNA sales yearling
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: TOM MCCROCKLIN
3) ON THE GOOD LIST (Speightstown)
$230,000 sales 2yo (KEE)
$175,000 sales yearling
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: TAYLOR MADE SALES
4) SAINTSATION (Competitive Edge)
$110,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$13,000 sales yearling
Seven starts, no wins, $29,005
BUYER: Dr. NAVEED CHOWHAN
SELLER: GRASSROOTS TRAINING (MCKATHAN)
5) RUSHIE (Liam's Map)
$70,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
Six starts, two wins, $189,351
BUYER: JIM DANIELL
SELLER: OCALA STUD
TOTALS FOR 2019
TOTAL EARNINGS (rounded to $1,000s): $316,000
AVERAGE EARNINGS: $62,000
TOTAL 2YO SALES PURCHASES (4): $1,910,000
AVERAGE 2YO SALE PRICE: $382,000
AVERAGE ROI: 16%
TOTAL YEARLING SALE PRICES (4): $338,000
AVERAGE YEARLING SALE PRICE: $84,500
2018
1) FEDERAL CASE (Gemologist)
$850,000 sales 2yo
13 starts, two wins, $123,351
BUYER: ROBERT AND LAWANA LOW
SELLER: WINSTAR RACING
2) TRIGGERMAN (Cairo Prince)
$350,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$160,000 sales yearling
Two starts, no wins, $1,091
BUYER: BRAD GRADY
SELLER: BOBBY DODD
3) PRESTO (Into Mischief)
$390,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$190,000 sales yearling
Two starts, no wins, $16,500
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE and ST. ELIAS STABLE
SELLER: PAUL SHARP
4) AVOCADO (Noble Mission)
$250,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$42,000 sales yearling
12 starts, one win, $42,800
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: MAYBERRY FARM
5) BEAN COUNTER (Into Mischief)
$220,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$100,000 sales yearling
Nine starts, three wins, $97,083
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: NIALL BRENNAN
6) RECESS (Point of Entry)
$120,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
10 starts, one win, $43,580
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: NIALL BRENNAN
7) GUACAMOLE (Flat Out)
$100,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$2,000 sales yearling
14 starts, 2 wins, $171,805
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: BIG EASY
8) STARRY AFFAIR (Soldat)
$80,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$47,000 sales 2yo
Two starts, one win, $26,880 (then sold at auction for $1,000)
BUYER: DR. NAVEED CHOWHAN
SELLER: SBM TRAINING AND SALES
9) GO POKE THE BEAR (Kittens Joy)
$40,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$14,000 RNA sales yearling
Five starts, two wins, $39,834 (then claimed for $40,000)
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: ALL DREAMS EQUINE
TOTALS FOR 2018
TOTAL EARNINGS (rounded to $1,000s): $562,000
AVERAGE EARNINGS: $62,222
TOTAL 2YO SALES PURCHASES (9): $2,400,000
AVERAGE 2YO SALE PRICE: $264,400
AVERAGE ROI: 23.6%
TOTAL YEARLING SALES PRICES (8): $555,000
AVERAGE YEARLING SALE PRICE: $69,375
In 2020 WEST BLOODSTOCK purchased
these two-year-olds in training:
1) UNNAMED (California Chrome)
$725,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$65,000 RNA sales yearling
BUYER: REPOLE STABLES and ST. ELIAS STABLE
SELLER: WAVERTREE STABLES
2) UNNAMED (Distorted Humor)
$700,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$165,000 sales yearling
BUYER: ROBERT AND LAWANA LOW
SELLER: MCKATHAN BROS.
3) RESTORED ORDER (Frosted)
$420,000 sales 2yo
$115,000 sales yearling
Two starts, no wins, $8,720
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: KING'S EQUINE
4) UNNAMED (Runhappy)
$290,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: DE MERIC SALES
5) PRISONER (Violence)
$175,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$190,000 RNA sales yearling
One start, one win, $35,200
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: SGV THOROUGHBREDS
6) UNNAMED (Liam's Map)
$155,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$85,000 sales yearling
BUYER: ST. ELIAS STABLE
SELLER: TOM MCCROCKLIN
7) AMOUNT (Curlin)
$110,000 sales yearling (OBS)
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: HARRIS TRAINING CENTER
8) GAMBLING CAT (Kittens Joy)
$80,000 sales 2yo
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: WOODFORD THOROUGHBREDS
9) DOUBLE DARE YOU (Daredevil)
$80,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$14,000 RNA sales yearling
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: NIALL BRENNAN
10) GLENDORA MINECAT (Mineshaft)
$50,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
$80,000 sales 2yo
UNRACED
BUYER: UNKNOWN
SELLER: SGV THOROUGHBREDS
11) STONE SURPRISE (Giant Surprise)
$45,000 sales 2yo (Fasig-Tipton)
$20,000 sales yearlingUNRACED
BUYER: UNKNOWN
SELLER: TOM MCCROCKLIN
12) UNNAMED (Outwork)
$45,000 sales 2yo (Fasig Tipton)
BUYER: REPOLE STABLE
SELLER: JULIE DAVIES
13) VODKA LEMONADE (Twirling Candy)
$40,000 sales 2yo (Fasig Tipton)
$37,000 sales yearling
UNRACED
BUYER: REPOLE STABLES
SELLER: CLASSIC BLOODSTOCK
14) OFFLEE NAUGHTY (Flashback)
$4,000 sales 2yo (OBS)
UNRACED
BUYER: UNKNOWN
SELLER: JVC TRAINING
TOTAL 2YO SALES PURCHASES (14): $2,909,000
AVERAGE 2YO SALE PRICE: $209,130
TOTAL YEARLING SALE PRICES (10): $784,000
AVERAGE YEARLING SALE PRICE: $78,400
Statistics through September 4, 2020
Sources: Blood-Horse, American Produce Records, Equibase
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