As usual, this year’s Derby promises to be a fascinating race. While it’s the best known race in the country if not the world, it’s by no means the race with the best horses. It’s a race for young horses just developing, where the pace and trip in a 20 horse field mean more in many cases than who has the most talent. This year’s edition is particularly wide open; unless you are sold on the undefeated 2yo champ Nyquist you can make a valid case for about half the field. That said, you need to pick someone, so here it goes…

First, some selections for a few other key races from Churchill…

Friday’s Kentucky Oaks;

I will take a stand against morning line favorite Rachel’s Valentina, who due to her famous & rightly beloved dam (Rachel Alexandra) is sure to be over bet. She can certainly win, but I’ll look for value with Go Maggie Go, Lewis Bay, and Weep No More, in that order. Go Maggie Go is lightly raced but may be the controlling speed and is bred to handle this. Lewis Bay and Weep No More both will have good enough odds you can likely play all three. I’ll box them with likely 2^nd choice Cathryn Sophia, who if you throw out her last race is simply better than anyone else. If she beats one of them you’ll still end up with a decent ticket with Rachael's Valentina out.

Saturday’s Pre-Derby races;

6^th – Distaff Turf

Tepin may be the best turf horse alive of either sex, won’t try to beat her, but I’ll take her in an exacta over two longshots; Cash Control & Rainha Da Bateria (who gets a big trainer switch), maybe a tiny backup win bet on each in case the favorite gets in trouble.

7^th – Churchill Downs Stakes

I’ll take a flyer on Limousine Liberal at a price, has the talent to beat this group and should offer some value, could wire the field.

8^th – Humana Distaff

Stonetastic is the speed of the race and on her best day could never look back, super tough spot, may be a bit beyond her best distance, but training super for this.

9^th – American Turf

I’ll look for value with Converge and Shakimat, both should pay well and either could prove a mild upset in a wide open affair.

10^th Pat Day Mile

I’ll take a flyer with a longshot here in Cocked & Loaded, met some of the best this year and might just fire a bullet today (sorry!).

11^th Woodford Reserve

Big Blue Kitten is the logical favorite and a must use in exactas. I’ll take him with Divisadero, who has run very well here before and is perhaps sitting on a big race, and Tourist, a very talented horse who ran well in his last, a race he needed and should move forward from. Both are worth win bets at the right price.

The Kentucky Derby

This is a super wide open affair, IF you don’t think the unbeaten Nyquist is simply the best horse. He’s done nothing wrong, is a deserving favorite, and a must use in exotics. CAN he win? Absolutely. He’s probably the most talented horse in the field and has shown heart and grit in his career that will stand him in good stead in this race. BUT, he’s also not bred for this distance, had a few minor reported health issues after the Florida Derby, and could be compromised by a fast pace. The smart money hates him, if that allows him for some reason to go off 6 to 1 or better, I’d play him at least as a backup win bet, but assuming he’s more like a 4 to 1 favorite, it’s the kind of race-situation where history shows you are better off trying to beat a horse like this.

Assuming Nyquist does go off solidly favored, I’ll go with 3 possible horses on top;

Top Contenders;

1. Creator is bred for this well enough, by the brilliant Tapit, and is moving forward with every start, exactly the pattern you want to see.  Ran well in his lone Churchill start, a key and frequently overlooked angle. The key for him is he’ll be coming from far back in the pack, which rarely produces the winner. I’ll take him win-place and in exotics, with a really good pace setup and trip, he’s the most likely winner if he fires his best.
2. Destin is royally bred for the distance, by Giant’s Causeway, and he too is moving forward with every start. Top rider in Castellano, and should sit a good trip from just off the pace. But his trainer Todd Pletcher has a horrible record in this race, and he really hasn’t beaten much, with his prep wins being two Tampa races. Still one of the top ones to get the win here
3. Gun Runner hasn’t run fast but he’s run well enough to 4 of 5 lifetime starts, including a race at Churchill Downs, could be under bet.

Possible Contenders;

Nyquist (see above)

Brody’s Cause – post hurts him, lost to several of these previously, but bred for it and last race was a huge effort, a factor if you believe that Blue Grass win at Keeneland.

Mor Spirit – No bad races, always there, perhaps a cut below the top ones, probably not the winner but could easily hit the board

Pretenders;

Outwork – Gritty win in the Wood at Aqueduct, but that was in mud over a (talented) maiden.

Exaggerator – Bred for this more than anyone (by Curlin). After losing to Nyquist and Brody’s Cause twice each previously, he crushed a weak, short field in the mud in the Santa Anita Derby. If he had done it on a dry track against better horses, I’d pick him on top, it’s all a matter of if his last was a huge move forward for a developing horse, or a win in the slop over a soft field.

Mohaymen – This horse has never beat a top horse, never won a grade I, and came into the Florida Derby grossly over-hyped and was crushed by Nyquist. That said, he has trained exceptionally well at Churchill, if you totally throw out his Florida Derby flop and think his works say he’s peaking, who knows?

Longshot Special;

I’ll put a few dollars on Suddenbreakingnews at a price. A flying 2^nd to Creator, my top choice last time out. This is jst the kind of horse who wins this race now in years like this, and he should be at least 20 to 1.