Our friends at Two-Year-Old Sales Preview Watch, a great group of horsemen dedicated (as we are) to giving people the facts about thoroughbred ownership sent us the article below. Take a look and at our commentary at the end…
TWO-YEAR-OLD SALES PREVIEW WATCH
"Are fast preview times predictive of racetrack success?"
The Blood-Horse magazine occasionally interviews buyers and sellers of the highest-priced horses sold in two-year-old auctions. Like many horsemen, we usually read the articles but lose track of the individual horses as we have plenty of our own to think about.
But we decided it would be interesting to follow-up and report on these high-profile sales graduates, and on their connections who shared their professional insights. Not including 2020, we found exactly 24 specific quotes in Blood-Horse on-line archives about OBS 2yo sales grads from 1998 to 2019. All are below:
2019
1) Buyer TERRY FINLEY of WEST POINT THOROUGHBREDS on the $2,000,000 TAPIT colt he purchased from SEQUEL BLOODSTOCK (BECKY THOMAS) after his :10 1/5 preview clocking:
"I looked down at the pedigree because I really don't look at the page when they breeze, and I saw that he was a Tapit out of a grade 1 mare, and I said 'Wow.' I have been thinking about this colt all week. I thought we would have a chance to get him, but didn't think I would have to go that far. A year from now, we may look pretty smart."
CHESTERTOWN
$2,000,000 sales 2yo
Six starts, one win, $82,740
2) Buyer JACOB WEST, agent for ROBERT and LAWANA LOW, purchased a fast LIAM'S MAP colt from WAVERTREE STABLES for $1,200,000 after he recorded a :20 4/5 preview time
"I don't use the term loosely, but he was a freak. I loved him from the second I saw him. There was a little bit of buzz before the sale. When you hear the buzz and then they show up on the track and do everything the right way, they vet clean, and they're from a good consignor, you get excited about them. When I went and saw him, I was totally in love. He was a physical specimen unlike anything I had seen in a while. I loved him. He has the right pedigree, and I am lucky to have clients that trust me."
"He is a big two-turn-looking horse who can hopefully get a route of ground," West said. He is stunning. I loved him so much. I hope the Lows come up with a good name for him because he is the man. We hope this horse goes on and we get lucky."
COLONEL LIAM
$1,200,000 sales 2yo
Two starts, one win, $27,090
3) Seller Luis Garcia (L.G., agent) praised his fastest-previewing THE BIG BEAST colt which was then purchased for $450,000 by PETER MILLER, agent. His recorded time of
:09 3/5 was the fastest in OBS sale history.
"I know he's a good horse and has talent and can run, but I
didn't know how fast he is. I get on him and gallop him every day,
and I knew I had plenty of horse left every time."'
"He's the fastest horse in this sale, so I hope buyers will come and
take a look," said Garcia, noting that some of the observers
during the workout session timed the colt in :20 for
a quarter-mile gallop out following the officially
timed eighth-mile effort.
PETE THE BEAST
$450,000 sales 2yo
UNRACED
4) Seller TIM HAMM (Blazing Meadows Farm) on his GOLDENCENTS filly whose
:20 2/5 set an OBS speed record. She later sold to PATRICIA'S HOPE.
"She's a fast and really athletic filly. She's done everything right. She's runner.
ANGELCENTS
$250,000 sales 2yo
Two starts, one win, $18,750
5) Buyer JUSTIN CASSE, agent on his $1,300,000 purchase of an INTO MISCHIEF colt from the consignment of deMeric Sales, who had covered two furlongs in a :21 flat:
"I don't know if any animal is flawless, but he is close to it....I had to have him".
MILANO
$1,300,000 sales 2yo
UNRACED
6) Buyer NED TOFFEY, agent for MYRACEHORSE.COM and SPENDTHRIFT FARM signed for an INTO MISCHIEF colt consigned by EDDIE WOODS, agent. He stopped the clock in :21 1/5 for 440 yards.
“Into Mischief stamps them very well and he was
what you would be looking for in an Into Mischief.”
LANE WAY
$550,000 sales 2yo
Five starts, no wins, $35,800
2018
7) Buyer EMMANUEL DE SEROUX, agent for KAZUMI YOSHIDA on the NIALL BRENNAN STABLES colt who previewed in :21 1/5.
"He is everything we were looking for"
FOSSAMAGNA
$725,000 sales 2yo
Nine starts, three wins, $463,667**** (JAPAN)
2017
8) Buyer ALESSANDRO MARCONI, agent for AL AISFA RACING on his MORE THAN READY filly whose :09 3/5 time for 220 yards was the sale's fastest:
"She is quality all over.. We couldn't see another horse after watching her"
9) Consignor CIARAN DUNNE (Wavertree Stables) on the same filly:
"We thought she was a superstar when we boughther and she trained like it"
BINT HUWAAR
$1,000,000 sales 2yo
Eight starts, one win, $46,937 in U.S., UK and UAE
2016
10) Buyer DAVID INGORDO, agent for LANE'S END RACING on his selection of the fastest previewer at 220 yards: :09 4/5:
"THis is one of the best Smark Strikes you're ever going to find".
Seller EDDIE WOODS on this colt: "The colt was a big, beautiful-looking horse. He's as good a horse as I ever get."
FORMULA ONE
$1,700,000 sales 2yo
Five starts, no wins, $4,331
12) Buyer DONATO LANNI, agent for FRANK FLETCHER RACING on the CITY ZIP colt which covered two furlongs in :21 1/5:
"The horse did everything right. He worked fast and came back sound.”
13) Seller JOHN STEPHENS (Stephens Thoroughbreds) on the same colt:
C Z ROCKET
$800,000 sales 2yo
20 starts, seven wins, $341,631
14) Trainer TODD PLETCHER on the UNCLE MO colt consigned by CARY FROMMER, agent, which previewed in :21 flat:
"We loved him"
MONACO
$1,300,000 sales 2yo
19 starts, three wins, $94,797
15) Buyer BRAD WEISBORD, agent for AL SHAQAB RACING, WINSTAR FARM, and CHINA HORSE CLUB, on the TWIRLING CANDY colt consigned by EISAMAN EQUINE which was timed in :10 1/5 for an eighth.
"Al Shaqab will be the main partner," Weisbord said. "He was
the best horse for our team today. He is the one we wanted to
walk away with. He has got a two-turn pedigree, (and had) a
(pre-sale) breeze that was special. Hopefully, he is a Saturday afternoon horse from next January to May."
MASTER PLAN
$850,000 sales 2yo
Six starts, one win, $283,640*** (UAE)
16) Buyer JUSTIN CASSE, agent for GARY BARBER on the WOODFORD THOROUGHBREDS' WAR FRONT filly timed in :10 flat for 220 yards:
“She was impressive for her whole breeze and down the backside,
She looks very much like the sire. She is very classy and I like her family. There is some activity there. She was our pick of the sale.”
BLACK CANARY
$425,000 sales 2y
11 starts, three wins, $190,805
17) Buyer NICK HINES, agent for ERIC GUILLOT said of his CANDY RIDE colt purchased from BOBBY DOFF after a :10 4/5 preview:
"We were prepared to go further but he was in the comfort zone as far as what we spent"
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CASH HINES $370,000 sales 2yo Two starts, no wins, $760
2015 18) Seller MATT LYONS of WOODFORD THOROUGHBREDS commented on the sale topper, a TAPIT filly bought by SOLIS/LITT, agent for LNJ FOXWOODS, whose :10 1/5 clocking was one of the fastest preview times: "She did everything right... All the top judgfes recognized that" INHERITANCE $1,900,000 sales 2yo Seven starts, one win, $83,962
19) Buyer DONATO LATTI, agent for FRANK FLETCHER RACING, commented on the SUMMER BIRD COLT who previewed in a fast :10 for consignor HARTLEY/DE RENZO: "It's hard for a 2 year old to check every box. To Bobby (Baffert) and I, he checked every box". BIG RED ROCKET $500,000 sales 2yo Seven starts, one win, $113,420 2014 |
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20) Buyer MARTHA DUGAN on buying an UNCLE MO colt which ran a :10 4/5 eighth.
"We’re going to win the (Kentucky) Derby with him next year.
We’re going after the Derby one last time.
We’ll see what happens."
21) Seller DANZEL BRENDEUMUEHL (Classic Bloodstock) on the same colt:
I'm glad these people bought this horse becuase he is a Derby type horse".
LETSGOIDAHO
$350,000 sales 2yo
UNRACED
22) Seller ALFREDO LICHOA on his GIANT'S CAUSEWAY colt whose :10 flat preview led STONESTREET STABLES to purchase him:
"This is the kind of horse you dream about"
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CARPE DIEM $1,600,000 sales 2yo Six starts, four wins, $1,519,800 |
23) Buyer BRAD WEISBORD, agent for AL SHAQAB RACING, on the TAPIT colt consigned by EDDIE WOODS, agent which previewed in :10 2/5.
"This was a can't miss colt"
FARRAJ
$1,600,000 sales 2yo
Four starts, one win, $23,335
2008
24) Seller SHARI EISAMAN (EISAMAN EQUINE) on the filly purchased for $520,000 by WEST POINT THOROUGHBREDS and JOHN WILLIAMS after recording a :10 preview clocking. fastest of the sale.
"I'm very happy, She's always been big and beautiful, but when she breezed,
I knew Hip No. 1 would never bother her after that. She's awesome
on the racetrack. She is just very fluid, and she has an
awesome reach (with her stride)."
BOCA BELLE
$520,000 sales 2yo
Four starts, no wins, $17,484
Sources: Blood-Horse, American Produce Records, Equibase
Statistics through July 12, 2020
Here’s what the Vice-president of the OBS Sales said after seeing this report….
"Your lack of understanding the horse business is the problem. I know expensive horses don't always run well, even the people who buy them understand it. It's a risk they are willing to take. They have plenty (of) money, what they don't have is a good horse. They are fine with it. Take me off your list". Francis Vanhootenburger (Summerfield Sales)
Researched and distributed to more than 3,100 Thoroughbred owners, trainers, agents, breeders and organizations by nearly-retired horsemen
Kenwood's Comment...
The numbers listed above speak for themselves, but what are the lessons we can take from this information? Clearly, as shown in many of Kenwood’s previous Blog posts, paying top dollar and/or buying horses with the fastest work times simply doesn’t pay off the vast majority of the time. Obviously, sales companies, sellers and agents don’t want people to know the ‘inconvenient truth’ because their business survives on dreams and hype, as the optimistic quotes from the buyers above demonstrates. But here’s ‘the rest of the story’. Every year at every major Yearling and Two-Year-Old sale, a significant number of ‘good’ horses are purchased for $20,000 - $150,000 that win major races and make money for their owners (or at least pay their way). Interestingly, the majority of all stakes winners from sales are purchased in that price range. Most horses, like most human athletes, aren’t going to make it at the top levels of the sport they compete in. Only a tiny handful of people make it to the big leagues in Baseball, Football, Basketball, tennis, etc. Only about 3% of all horses ever win a stake race in their lifetime, while just a fraction of 1% ever win a graded stake. If you pay the kind of prices people regularly spend in the examples above you are virtually guaranteed to lose money, even if you do come up with a ‘good horse’. If you work within a rational budget you have a shot for genuine success if you find the ‘big horse’ owners dream of. If instead of selling dreams and hype the industry told people the truth, we’d have a lot fewer disillusioned new owners and a lot more people playing the game for the long run.
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