This year’s Derby field is the strongest, deepest and most impressive  group of three year olds seen in decades. With several leading contenders undefeated and/or winning recent starts in super-fast times, it’s likely to be an exceptional race. Morning line favorite American Pharoah is regarded by many as a super horse, and is hard to bet against. That said, he’s likely to be over-bet and some longer shots may offer interesting wagering opportunities. Here’s our picks and (a key element most handicappers fail to include) how to play them…

Top Selection;

1. American Pharoah comes into this race off a smashing win in the Arkansas Derby, drawing away with ease that day to crush an admittedly weak field. He’s trained great at Churchill the last 10 days; perfectly prepared for this and potentially a horse for the ages. The major knock is something he can’t control, the #18 post and the pace. Few horses win from there and in a 20 horse field, this race is always about the trip. With a horse that everyone from savvy clockers like DRF’s Mike Welsch to talking heads who don’t know a furlong from a fetlock are picking to win, it’s tempting to try to come up with an alternate selection. However as Mike stated when making Pharoah his top selection, this simply is the best horse going into the race and it’s foolish to look elsewhere just to be contrarian. He’ll need a good trip from post 18 and must fire his best shot against a stellar field, but we’ll make him our choice too despite the post, based on the talent he has demonstrated and how he has trained up to the race. With all the hype he’ll likely be over-bet, but if he were to go off at or above his morning line 5 to 2 odds, I’d take a deep breath and make a serious win-place wager on him.

The Contenders; Barring a real shock, a strange trip (which happens a lot in the Derby with 20 horse fields!), one of these alternates will win if the top one doesn’t

1. Dortmund is the obvious 2nd favorite off a dominating win in the Santa Anita Derby to remain undefeated. The questions remain however. Will his pedigree be his undoing at 1&1/4 miles? Can he handle the transition from California tracks to the tricky Churchill surface? Wouldn’t be any shock to see him win, but horses like this usually don’t. Will use in exotics for sure but taking a stand against here with win bets looking for better value.
2. Carpe Diem a serious possibility. Won Bluegrass Stakes impressively against a modest group and now needs to take another step forward to get the job done.  A fine overall record (4 wins and a 2^nd in 5 lifetime starts) but has yet to run really fast in any of his races. Is said to be a nervous horses at times, which doesn’t help. And trainer Todd Pletcher has a horrible record (1 for 40) in the Derby. One of the few expensive horses (a $1,600,000 purchase) to even make it to the race, he certainly has the pedigree sire and dam side to get the distance. I think he’s just a cut below the top ones, but if others don’t fire and/or he takes a step forward, could take it all the way to the winner’s circle.
3. International Star. Has won his last three, with speed figures improving every time. His sire won this race. Well trained and managed by quality connections.  Needs to take another step forward speed wise but would be no shock and will be overlooked in the wagering. Value play on the win-place end and a must use in exotics.
4. Frosted  By leading sire Tapit, he looked like a horse reaching his peak when impressively beating a decent field last out in the Wood Memorial, rebounding from a couple of disappointing races at Gulfstream this winter. Not our favorite jockey aboard, but he won on him last time. If he goes off anywhere near his 15 to 1 morning line, well worth a win-place bet and a must use in exotics.
5. Mubtaahij  He’s the true ‘X’ factor in this race. Won impressively in the UAE in his last start and is trained by Michael de Kock, a terrific trainer who has a super record sending horses over to the USA to run. What did he beat in Dubai? Who knows! Can he handle the ship and the quarantine and beat a field of this caliber? Hard to do for sure. He’d need a perfect trip and have to be one special horse to pull it off, but it’s not totally out of the question. Worth putting a few dollars on to win-place at what figures to be square price and a must use in exotic

The Pretenders; Unlikely but not impossible

1. Firing Line Pedigree a bit of a question mark and he’s lost twice to Dortmund. Beat up a weak field in New Mexico at 1 to 9 odds in his last start. Not totally out of the picture, could hit the board, but we’ll look elsewhere for the top selection
2. Materiality  Comes into the race undefeated with a huge speed number for his win against what looked like a sub-par field in the Florida Derby. Only had three starts and again, Todd Pletcher has a poor record in this race. Too many negatives to pick here, but a horse who has done this well in his brief career merits a mention.
3. Keen Ice 50 to 1 on the morning line, a total bomb but not a throw out. Been beaten by a number of horses in this field yet has the pedigree and running style to be rolling late. If the race ends up with a speed duel and a fast pace (which appears more than possible with several leading contenders likely to be on or near the front end early), he could pass a lot of horses in the stretch. Worth a flyer at the odds win-place and including in exotic wagers.

Six serious contenders and three pretenders sounds like a lot, but I am totally eliminating 11 others, including several of the logical contenders (aside from American Pharoah, who has the look of a super horse and is strictly the one to beat) Of the remaining bunch, I’ll be surprised if any of the others win but hey it’s the Derby, if Mine That Bird can win at 50 to 1, anything is possible!

Wagering Strategy;

In a race like this, HOW you bet is almost as important as WHO you bet. As stated above, I’d make a serious win-place bet on American Pharoah at 5 to 2 or better odds and back up with smaller win-place wagers on International Star, Frosted, Mubtaahij and a smidgen on Keen Ice. Assuming ‘Pharoah’ goes off at shorter odds, then stick with modest win-place wagers on the 4 contenders above, but don’t risk too much trying to beat the favorite. Note; in a race like this it always makes sense to bet win AND place as opposed to solely win on a horse you like, as the place price is likely to be solid in a 20 horse field and any horse can run well and get beat. For exotics; for your major bet take American Pharoah on top of the 4 contenders above likely to go off at attractive prices (International Star, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Keen Ice) in exactas - trifectas, then a smaller bet with the 4 contenders on top of American Pharoah. Finally, as a backup, make smaller wagers with Dortmund and Carpe Diem, the other two major contenders, on top of and below International Star, Frosted, Mubtaahij, Keen Ice in exactas- trifectas. For those with more $, you could certainly include Materiality and Firing Line in the above exotic wagers.

What we are doing here is saying if American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem, the three obvious favorites, sweep the top two spots, we get nothing. In a 20 horse race, it makes no sense and there is little value wagering on the three favorites together.  If one of the top three wins or finishes second to one of four logical contenders who figure to go off at nice prices, we come home with a score! History shows at least one or two longshots are going to hit the board, we put it on the line and picked 4 we feel have a legitimate chance to finish in the mix, most likely with favored American Pharoah. As mentioned above, if American Pharoah goes off 5 to 2 or better he’s worth a serious win-place bet, but with all the hype that appears unlikely. In that case you would focus your money on him and reduce but not eliminate the exotic and other win-place backup bets.

Good luck with your wagers and a safe trip for all horses and riders!